CATL Says Solid State Batteries Not Expected to Leap Forward Until 2030

Solid-State Battery Hype Faces Reality Check from CATL Founder

The founder and chairman of CATL, the world's largest EV battery maker, has poured cold water on the solid-state battery hype, stating that the technology is only at "level four" of a nine-step readiness scale. Speaking at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting of the New Champions in China, Robin Zeng Yuqun predicted that an inflection point for the technology won't arrive until 2030, and even warned that its commercial viability has yet to be established. This cautious take from the boss of the company that controls roughly 40% of the global EV battery market is notable, especially for Canadian EV enthusiasts who are eagerly awaiting advancements in the technology.

Semi-Solid-State Batteries Already Available, But Not the Real Deal

While some EVs in China are already being marketed with "solid-state" batteries, these are actually semi-solid-state batteries, which use a reduced amount of liquid or gel electrolyte. China's draft national solid-state battery standard explicitly classifies semi-solid as a "mixed liquid-solid battery" - not a true solid-state battery. The all-solid-state cells that Zeng is talking about remove the liquid entirely, making them much harder to manufacture. Canadian consumers who are considering purchasing an EV with a solid-state battery should be aware of the difference and the potential limitations of semi-solid-state batteries.

Mass Production Still Six Years Away

Zeng's skepticism isn't a reversal, but rather a reality check on timelines that have been creeping into marketing decks across the industry. CATL is still working towards small-scale, all-solid-state production by 2027, but the company's chief scientist has outlined a goal of reaching "level seven to eight" by then, with a planned capacity of just 5 GWh. The gap between "small-batch" in 2027 and genuine "mass production" in 2030 is the whole point Zeng is making. Canadian EV manufacturers and consumers should be prepared for a longer wait before solid-state batteries become widely available, which may impact the pricing and incentives for EVs in Canada, including the iZEV program and provincial rebates.

Implications for Canadian EV Market

The delay in mass production of solid-state batteries may have implications for the Canadian EV market, including the availability and pricing of EVs in Canada. The Canadian government's iZEV program, which offers incentives for purchasing EVs, may need to be adjusted to reflect the delayed timeline for solid-state batteries. Additionally, provincial rebates and incentives may also be impacted, which could affect the adoption of EVs in Canada. Canadian consumers who are considering purchasing an EV should be aware of the potential implications of the delayed timeline for solid-state batteries and plan accordingly.

Major Players Still Betting on 2027

Despite Zeng's cautious take, nearly every major player is still dangling 2027 as the breakthrough year for solid-state batteries. Toyota, which holds more solid-state patents than anyone, has reiterated plans to launch EVs with all-solid-state batteries between 2027 and 2028, targeting driving ranges of around 1,200 km. BYD has confirmed it will begin putting all-solid-state batteries in vehicles in 2027, with large-scale mass production slated for 2030. Canadian consumers should be aware of the potential for limited availability and high pricing of EVs with solid-state batteries in the near term, and plan accordingly.